Extended Phenotype

The National Journal’s congressional vote ratings apparently show that John Kerry is the “most liberal” Senator in their 2003 analysis. It’s difficult to read the original analysis, however, because NJ is $1700 annually. So here’s a summary article from GovExec.com.

It just doesn’t smell right to me. Yeah, Kerry’s voted on the liberal side many times, but not consistently enough that anyone thinks of him as more liberal than say…Barbara Boxer or Ted Kennedy.

Right?

Common wisdom is that “statistics can be used to prove anything.” While untrue, it does matter enormously what methods you use and how one creates the measurements which are summarized by the statistics.

Here’s a case in point. Keith Poole of the University of Houston is a researcher on the statistical analysis of voting patterns. Poole’s analysis of roll call voting in the 108th Senate (as of the end of 2003), shows Kerry mid-way through the Democratic pack. Click the “Continue reading…” link below to see Poole’s roll call ranking (or visit his site for analyses of the House and Supreme Court!). Byrd and Boxer, on average, are the most liberal members of the Senate, according to Poole’s ranking. Kerry occupies the middle of the liberal “half” of the ranking, sandwiched in with Patty Murray, Joe Lieberman, and a few others. Joe Biden, Bayh, Baucus, and Breaux are all “less liberal” than Kerry according to the ranking — which would seem to fit my intuitive notions well.

Kerry is actually fairly moderate, as you’d expect in this election. And his running mate is in the next “cluster” of Senators to the liberal side, along with Hilary Clinton and Maria Cantwell.

Their public statements tally fairly well, in my opinion, with their liberal-moderate ranking in the Poole data set. This should be taken as evidence that despite window-dressing, we’re not seeing markedly different positions from Kerry and Edwards in the presidential campaign than we have as senators. So what we’re hearing from them is probably a fair reflection of what they’ll press as an agenda while in office. There’s no chance Kerry is going to rip off the mask after inauguration and reveal Eugene Debs hiding underneath.

So I’d take the National Journal’s study with a grain of salt. The tar-and-feathering of John Kerry as the “most liberal” member of the Senate is likely pure electioneering, not a statement of fact — or even a credible research result.

108  1366 56 WEST VI D BYRD, ROBER   27  365   0.926   1.000
108 15011 71 CALIFOR D BOXER         10  370   0.973   3.000
108 29142  5 RHODE I D REED          19  377   0.950   3.000
108 14914 12 NEW JER D LAUTENBERG    20  377   0.947   3.000
108 10808  3 MASSACH D KENNEDY, ED   16  359   0.955   5.000
108 13039 52 MARYLAN D SARBANES       6  372   0.984   6.000
108 14230 31 IOWA    D HARKIN        12  359   0.967   8.000
108 94240  6 VERMONT I JEFFORDS      49  371   0.868   8.000
108 15503 43 FLORIDA D GRAHAM, BOB   16  273   0.941   8.000
108 14307  6 VERMONT D LEAHY         19  375   0.949  10.000
108 14213  1 CONNECT D DODD          15  372   0.960  11.000
108 14922 56 WEST VI D ROCKEFELLER   20  376   0.947  12.500
108 15021 21 ILLINOI D DURBIN        11  379   0.971  12.500
108 49309 25 WISCONS D FEINGOLD      31  379   0.918  15.000
108 14709 23 MICHIGA D LEVIN, CARL   12  379   0.968  15.000
108 40104 12 NEW JER D CORZINE       19  377   0.950  15.000
108  4812 82 HAWAII  D INOUYE        25  331   0.924  17.000
108 39310 73 WASHING D CANTWELL      19  377   0.950  19.500
108 14440 52 MARYLAN D MIKULSKI       8  374   0.979  19.500
108 40105 13 NEW YOR D CLINTON       20  376   0.947  19.500
108 49902 47 NORTH C D EDWARDS        9  241   0.963  19.500
108 14400 82 HAWAII  D AKAKA         22  379   0.942  24.500
108 14920  3 MASSACH D KERRY, JOHN    2  146   0.986  24.500
108 15704  1 CONNECT D LIEBERMAN     10  184   0.946  24.500
108 40101 33 MINNESO D DAYTON        27  368   0.927  24.500
108 49308 73 WASHING D MURRAY        16  375   0.957  24.500
108 29732 23 MICHIGA D STABENOW      11  379   0.971  24.500
108 14912 66 NEW MEX D BINGAMAN      34  375   0.909  28.500
108 14858 13 NEW YOR D SCHUMER       24  378   0.937  28.500
108 49300 71 CALIFOR D FEINSTEIN     32  370   0.914  30.500
108 14871 72 OREGON  D WYDEN         28  377   0.926  30.500
108 14651 43 FLORIDA D NELSON, CLA   29  375   0.923  32.000
108 15054 65 NEVADA  D REID          12  377   0.968  33.000
108 11204 48 SOUTH C D HOLLINGS      44  357   0.877  34.000
108 14617 37 SOUTH D D DASCHLE       14  377   0.963  35.000
108 15425 37 SOUTH D D JOHNSON       16  376   0.957  36.000
108 15703 25 WISCONS D KOHL          13  375   0.965  37.000
108 14101 11 DELAWAR D BIDEN         29  360   0.919  38.000
108 14812 36 NORTH D D DORGAN        11  376   0.971  39.000
108 15502 36 NORTH D D CONRAD        24  375   0.936  40.000
108 49901 22 INDIANA D BAYH          35  378   0.907  41.000
108 40100 11 DELAWAR D CARPER        39  371   0.895  42.000
108 29305 42 ARKANSA D LINCOLN       19  376   0.949  43.000
108     0 42 ARKANSA D PRYOR         25  377   0.934  44.000
108 49702 45 LOUISIA D LANDRIEU      24  371   0.935  45.000
108 14203 64 MONTANA D BAUCUS        29  378   0.923  46.000
108 13056 45 LOUISIA D BREAUX        39  376   0.896  47.000
108 40103 35 NEBRASK D NELSON, BEN   29  363   0.920  48.000
108 49905  5 RHODE I R CHAFEE        56  377   0.851  49.000
108 14661  2 MAINE   R SNOWE         39  379   0.897  50.000
108 49703  2 MAINE   R COLLINS       38  379   0.900  51.000
108 14910 14 PENNSYL R SPECTER       39  376   0.896  52.000
108 49705 72 OREGON  R SMITH, GORD   16  357   0.955  53.000
108     0 33 MINNESO R COLEMAN       18  378   0.952  54.500
108 15020 24 OHIO    R DEWINE        17  379   0.955  54.500
108 49904 44 GEORGIA D MILLER        17  302   0.944  56.000
108 14226 31 IOWA    R GRASSLEY      10  379   0.974  57.000
108 14852 32 KANSAS  R ROBERTS        9  378   0.976  58.000
108 95407 62 COLORAD R CAMPBELL      32  358   0.911  59.500
108 29523 32 KANSAS  R BROWNBACK     16  376   0.957  59.500
108 49903 24 OHIO    R VOINOVICH     26  372   0.930  61.000
108 49307 67 UTAH    R BENNETT        8  374   0.979  62.500
108 15501 34 MISSOUR R BOND          11  375   0.971  62.500
108 14503 67 UTAH    R HATCH         11  378   0.971  64.000
108 14103 66 NEW MEX R DOMENICI       9  351   0.974  66.500
108     0 81 ALASKA  R MURKOWSKI     18  364   0.951  66.500
108 12109 81 ALASKA  R STEVENS       14  378   0.963  66.500
108 94659 41 ALABAMA R SHELBY        18  370   0.951  66.500
108 14009 46 MISSISS R COCHRAN        6  379   0.984  69.000
108     0 54 TENNESS R ALEXANDER      6  373   0.984  71.000
108 14712 40 VIRGINI R WARNER        18  377   0.952  71.000
108 49900 21 ILLINOI R FITZGERALD    20  374   0.947  71.000
108 14506 22 INDIANA R LUGAR          9  377   0.976  73.000
108 29512 44 GEORGIA R CHAMBLISS     11  378   0.971  75.000
108 49704 35 NEBRASK R HAGEL         12  365   0.967  75.000
108 49306 49 TEXAS   R HUTCHISON,    27  374   0.928  75.000
108     0 34 MISSOUR R TALENT        13  376   0.965  77.000
108     0 47 NORTH C R DOLE          15  378   0.960  78.500
108 15701 64 MONTANA R BURNS          8  376   0.979  78.500
108 49502 54 TENNESS R FRIST         10  379   0.974  80.000
108 14031 46 MISSISS R LOTT          12  367   0.967  81.500
108 14921 51 KENTUCK R MCCONNELL      6  367   0.984  81.500
108 29566 48 SOUTH C R GRAHAM        20  377   0.947  83.000
108 15406 51 KENTUCK R BUNNING        8  371   0.978  85.500
108 14809 63 IDAHO   R CRAIG          8  376   0.979  85.500
108 29345 63 IDAHO   R CRAPO          7  372   0.981  85.500
108 15424 53 OKLAHOM R INHOFE        11  372   0.970  85.500
108     0 49 TEXAS   R CORNYN         7  378   0.981  88.000
108 49706 68 WYOMING R ENZI          14  379   0.963  90.500
108 29148 40 VIRGINI R ALLEN         14  378   0.963  90.500
108 14826  4 NEW HAM R GREGG         34  378   0.910  90.500
108 15633 68 WYOMING R THOMAS         1  186   0.995  90.500
108 49700 41 ALABAMA R SESSIONS      12  378   0.968  93.000
108 29141 14 PENNSYL R SANTORUM      13  377   0.966  94.000
108 29740  4 NEW HAM R SUNUNU        17  367   0.954  95.000
108 29108 62 COLORAD R ALLARD        12  377   0.968  96.500
108 15039 61 ARIZONA R MCCAIN        50  374   0.866  96.500
108 29537 65 NEVADA  R ENSIGN        23  369   0.938  98.000
108 15429 61 ARIZONA R KYL           10  377   0.973  99.000
108 14908 53 OKLAHOM R NICKLES, DO    8  378   0.979 100.000

Source: Keith T. Poole, University of Houston. http://voteview.uh.edu/sen108.htm